Thursday, March 20, 2008

Mr. E's Final Four

I’m about to break down the road to the Final Four in simple terms— it’s a formula that involves certain variables, such as numbers, experience, and confidence.

Prepare to eat your heart out Joe Lunardi.

Now, some may say that momentum is only as good as your next game, which I agree to some extent. However, I don’t believe in momentum. But I do believe in confidence, and that is why I will start with the Southland Bracket.

South: I was never a fan of Memphis. I think they are quite overrated, despite being exceptionally talented. You cannot win ball games in this tournament setting when you turn the ball over and have poor free throw shooting. And with an up-tempo type team like Memphis running up and down the floor, I don’t see how they can minimize these faults. Texas is a very good team, but I don’t like their road to the Final Four. I think they can get upended by Stanford in the Sweet 16, and how can a team that boasted the best collegiate player a year ago win it without him this year? My pick? Pittsburgh. They have the right type of players, good free throw shooting, the confidence (after winning the Big East Tournament Championship), and the experience (the aforementioned tourney tour).

West: Very soft bracket out West. UCLA as the No. 1 is an undeterred, yet flawed pick. Purdue is a possible sleeper with the talent they have, but they are far too young. The Boilermakers are poised for serious contention in a year or so. The Dukies are on everyone’s radar because, well they are Duke, but at the same time under appreciated. They have the talent, the coach, and the experience to poise a threat to the Bruins. But they really have trouble against a team that can bang it inside, and hurt you underneath the basket. With Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Kevin Love, I think UCLA cruises to the Final Four.

East: I will begin by saying this: If Indiana hadn’t given up on the season, they would have been a nice sleeper pick for the Final Four. As it stands, they have neither the heart nor the mental energy to endure a long trip through the Big Dance. Consider it a shame D.J. White and his Hoosiers will never make the run they deserve. Including Indiana, the East is jam-packed with candidates for the big prize. Tennessee is a great team with unparalleled talent and superb coaching. However, they fell off the horse in Vanderbilt (I think a key example to this team’s flaws) and in the SEC Tournament. Poor free-throw shooting does them in the Sweet 16. The team that beats them to go to the Elite Eight is Louisville. Arguably the best coach in the land today, Louisville seemed to put together a high quality team once David Padgette returned from injury. But can he hold up? I don’t think so, especially considering a potential match-up against the Vols could be draining. My pick? It’s gotta be North Carolina. They are No. 1 in the country for a reason. They have athleticism, depth, coaching, confidence, and experience. They are the perennial package. They don’t have an easy road but Lawson, Hansbrough, Ellington and Green are too much for anyone.

Midwest: A very unassuming bracket with a few teams that got shafted in the seeding process. Kansas as the No. 1 is a great team. Arthur and Rush are two phenomenal players that can take any team to the dance. But, not this year. I like Clemson to upend them in the Sweet 16. The Tigers have a lot of balance on the offensive end and they are riding a stream of confidence into the NCAA Tournament. They proved their meddle against Duke, and lost another close bout to North Carolina. The "wise" committee screwed Wisconsin by giving the outright Big Ten Champion Badgers a No. 3 seed. I like their style of play, tenacious defense countered by gritty offensive. They do not sit still in the offensive zone always looking for open looks. I think Georgetown can pull away from Wisconsin because of their versatility inside, and Butch doesn’t match well against Hibbert. Georgetown also has the defensive tenacity it shut down Clemson, en route to the Final Four.

North Carolina over Georgetown: Despite a potential coming out party for Hibbert this year, the Hoyas are overmatched by the Tar Heels and their inside-outside scoring potential.

Pittsburgh over UCLA: I like the upset here— Pittsburgh is riding high through the tournament, mix of athletic big men in Blair and Young can outwork Love and Co. I thought UCLA has had a soft run all year, playing in an overrated Pac-10 Conference and running through an easy West Bracket. UCLA should’ve lost a few times when they pulled out a win, thanks to officiating or other divine elements. Pittsburgh wins close.

North Carolina over Pittsburgh: Another championship game, another blowout. The miracle run for the Panthers ends in San Antonio. Once again, the Tar Heels are too much for their opponent and despite the hustling Pittsburgh bunch, Hanbrough runs through freshman Blair and Ellington and Green dominate the perimeter. Roy Williams wins his second.

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